European Central Bank President Draghi Speaks

The US is New Zealand’s second largest export market and third in import terms. This had made the NZD to USD exchange rate a focus of our money transfer team for many years.

November 9th 3:


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Why Mega Trader FX? German can legally save Europe NZ quarterly GDP released at the expected 0. This triggered a delayed sell off in the kiwi as it battled to stay above key long term support of 0.

US home sales printed weaker at 5. Buyers of the greenback USD should consider the overnight spike back to 0. Key support is at 0.

We have bounced off this mark several times since so we expect this to hold for the meantime. Trade tensions have reared its ugly head again with President Trump signalling further tariffs against Chinese imported products with China retaliated slamming tariffs on American made products. We will hear more about this at the end of the week with President Trump winding into it saying he will instigate more tariffs soon.

US Retail Sales and Unemployment claims both printed better than markets were expecting at 0. FOMC as expected raised their cash rate to 2. Risk in the markets also took a hit with the ECB European Central Bank startling markets with dovish comments instead of the upbeat rhetoric we were expecting. This dropped the EUR to fresh lows and dampened any appetite for investors to take on risk. The rot may have set in with markets realising the US Dollar USD is undervalued, we think risk lies to the downside with massive support at 0.

Markets will lack any conviction today with the Singapore summit in place and FOMC meetings later this week. We will see if the NZD has the appetite to break from its theme and develop fresh momentum in any direction.

Risk appetite will certainly be the main driver. The fear is that if they raise rates to fast this could raise the risk of the economy falling back into a recession. If inflation goes higher the Federal Reserve might look to tighten up credit at the detriment of rising growth — a fine line. Buyers of USD have recently seen prices dip well below 0. Currencies have moved in strange ways this week with markets lacking any real fundamental analysis to grab hold of.

The G7 meeting will take centre stage today with tariffs the main point of discussion. Technically the kiwi is trading in a bullish trend from the low of 0. Geopolitical issues were put aside with equities and commodities all higher towards the end of the week and flowing over into this week with the NZD opening higher. The kiwi is up sharply pushing through the magical handle of 0.

With the kiwi above 0. After initially dipping down to 0. A bunch of US data has been released overnight including Personal Consumption Expenditure and Personal Spending, both printing better than expectation and erasing early week nervousness. We should see further upside in the pair as we think risk products will be favored in the short term. The kiwi is bang on 0. Currency Exchange Quotes or Apply for an account. The kiwi has been choppy but resilient against the favoured US Dollar USD as markets have largely chosen to stay clear of risk products such as the NZD with geopolitical uncertainties.

In-fact one could argue the NZD has no right trading where it is — 0. Trade Balance figures printing much higher than predicted late last week have carried the support for the kiwi into this week. Buyers of US Dollars should look for a spike above 0.

Risk sentiment in the markets have driven a lot of the movement in currencies this week with the kiwi no exception bouncing like a fart in a spacesuit. Early in the week we saw markets take on risk products as the kiwi took on 0. For buyers out there looking at the right time to buy USD we see strong support around 0. The trade tariff war of words has been halted as the US and China work on a big picture deal.

Massive resistance is still seen at 0. President Trump exiting from the Iran deal has opened up talks on new sanctions with fresh risk of further conflict in the Middle East with a lack of stability there. A quiet week for the kiwi in terms of local data apart from the Annual Budget, a slew of US based releases should create volatility towards the end of the week with building permits and unemployment claims. Donald Trump has followed through with his earlier threats to pull out from the Iran nuclear deal and the US Treasury Department has announced a new round of sanctions on Iran.

Currently trading at 0. As we have said 0. Data out in the US has been well above expectation with US Private Payroll data adding , workers and the Federal Reserve reconfirming inflation targets for the next few months.

There is minor support down toward 0. While we remain bearish on the NZD, the easy work has now been done and declines from here will be much harder fought. We may well see the NZD find some support soon and enter a period of ranging, before the downside price action eventually reasserts itself. From a high at the beginning of the week of 0.

Although USD gains were broad based, the NZD certainly underperformed losing ground on a number of other crosses as well. Momentum is firmly to the down side and this move may well look to test 0. With little on the local economic calendar, attention will turn to offshore releases, particularly Core Durable Goods orders and US Advance GDP toward the end of the week.

Risk has engulfed markets again with investors reaching for safe haven trades as bears take charge. This could be an ongoing theme as we approach tighter global liquidity with mixed worldwide growth making for higher volatility. Long term the pair is still operating within a range band we have mentioned previously between the low of 0.

It looks like we are going to test the lower end of the range. We have a quiet week ahead with no significant local data releasing other than Trade Balance.

Expect movement to be driven by offshore factors. Investors turned to risk aversion late in the week after missile strikes on Syria became a reality, UK, France and the US destroying a number of chemical facilities. Indications are still to the upside for the New Zealand Dollar NZD with the 40 day moving average still showing a possible rise back to 0.

Markets saw this as the ticket to buy risk currencies with the New Zealand continuing to outperform. Further moves north should not be ruled out with the resistance of 0. Indicators mostly point to the upside with the 40 day moving average below current price and the RSI in an overbought region.

Next week we have crucial quarterly CPI numbers with the last quarter printing down on expectation. Rallying to a new high of 0. Commodities and equities were also up, the DOW and Nasdaq both over 0. The US Dollar index fall under The NZD bounced off resistance at 0. With support seen around 0. The upper band of 0. As the threats continue, markets generally remain of the opinion that the US cannot win a trade war against China, with most eventualities leaving the US with negative consequences.

Investors buying USD should keep an eye on the 0. With little local data to be excited about or boost the kiwi, markets have watched as equities and commodities have traded lower pre, and post, Easter break with news of further US and China trade talks negatively impacting optimism. US Non-Farm Payroll is set to publish later in the week, markets most important announcement of the month, if it prints better than the expected k as it did last month this could bring some much needed stability back to markets.

The pair could test 0. The Fed Rate announcement took the kiwi back to 0. Powell remained neutral in his Fed speech on monetary policy but hinted of a hawkish stance ahead saying they would aggressively hike rates as they needed to through to Consolidating around the 0.

The New Zealand Dollar NZD medium term trend remains range bound against the greenback USD , although some weakness in the past 12 hours has seen the pair off the best levels of the week. It would take an extremely risk adverse market or an unfortunate sequence of local or offshore news for the New Zealand Dollar NZD to be thrust below this key level. When the Fed hike rates 0.

A break higher may see the NZD take a peek at the 0. Equities were also higher with the DOW up over 1. The New Zealand Dollar movement this week could be largely governed by investor risk appetite and continuing tariff negotiations. Little local data suggests movement will be guided by US based markets. Buyers of USD Dollars should not overlook prices north of 0. Opening the week at 0. ANZ Business was underwhelming and offered no reprieve.

Then US President Trump spoke of approving tariffs on the imports of steel and aluminum into the US and sank the greenback. New Zealand Building consents for new homes were flat for January showing approvals at a modest 0. This week sees a bunch of economic data to be released globally with only ANZ Business Confidence of note locally. FOMC minutes cautioned an imbalance in financial markets may emerge as the economy starts to operate above its expected potential. The New Zealand Dollar trades at 0.

Support is now seen at 0. Remaining at near 6 month highs it remains popular through most trading sessions as investors remain optimistic. Buyers of USD should consider at current levels with markets still volatile, anything could eventuate. With momentum extremely strong amid a risk on market, short term resistance of 0.

Buyers of the US Dollars could think about buying at these levels with uncertainty still in the air prices around 0. Looking fairly robust as always it should continue to appreciate back to early Feb highs of 0. Medium term support still sits at 0. Light trading to feature over the next two days and we expect 0. It is now back at 0. There is no main data out for the NZD until next week when we will have another global dairy auction, employment data and the RBNZ announcement.

This week with little local data, it will be all about offshore movements and with plenty of headlines out from the US this week has potential to be volatile. We expect consolidation trading ahead of the Fed meeting at current levels but any breakdown through 0. The NZD was on a tear this week rallying to a high of 0. However, it was knocked back yesterday by CPI data that fell well below expectations, dropping to the 0.

With NZ fundamentals on the turn, low inflation, dropping business confidence levels pitted against a US economy that is accelerating and at least 3 Fed rate hikes now probable over the next year, current NZD levels look unsustainable. A break over 0. Current levels look attractive for sellers of NZD. Over the last 3 days each high has been lower than the last, 0. The better Global Dairy auction result was supportive but this effect looks as if it is now wearing off.

It is now back a little at 0. After opening the week around the 0. Immediate support is at 0. Given further US Fed rate hikes are anticipated and in the absence of stronger domestic NZ fundamentals, current levels for sellers of NZD look attractive. There remains strong resistance at the 0. Those gains have continued over the Christmas and NY period despite a run of strong US economic releases that one might have suspected would support the USD.

The general theme of the past couple of weeks has been broad based USD weakness, and we saw another bout of that last night. As has been the case recently, it may well be the wage growth numbers that carry more weight than the headline jobs figure.

There is solid resistance around the 0. The move extended this week as commodity currencies lead the gains against a broadly weaker USD. The NZD has traded to a high so far of 0. Key trend support is now seen at 0. Now sitting around the 0. Immediate resistance is now at 0. Support is at 0. Risk overnight is the Global Dairy auction result which if bad could see the NZD slip back into the 0.

For now upside looks capped at the 0. We now look for consolidation around the 0. However next week will see market volumes decrease as the holiday season kicks in. There was little reason for such a bounce but it looks as if the market was a little short the NZD and this little bounce caused short sellers to liquidate their positions, exacerbating the move higher. This seems to be holding and resisted being sold below 0. Holding around current levels would establish a good base to move higher next week into the 0.

The move has mainly on the back of the weaker USD. The pair is now at 0. It is now at 0. We feel the pair should hold current levels to end the week, but progress on the US tax reform package next week should keep NZD under pressure.

The key level to watch is around 0. Any significant break below there would be a bearish signal. With the ongoing tax reform issues in the US the NZD should see some buying support, look for consolidation at current levels over the next few days.

Also helping has been the USD pullback on the back of doubts around Trumps tax package. Continued USD weakness may see a move back over 0. It now at 0. As Trumps tax plan overcomes hurdles, and the chance if it actually been implemented before Christmas increases, the USD is finding support. It should consolidate around current levels 0. A break of 0. Under pressure all week, the NZD has been breaking down through support at 0.

While NZD weakness on the back of the Labour coalition announcement is largely now priced into the market, declines in the past 48 hours have been driven by USD strength. Opening the week marginally softer, the NZD has slipped to 0. The pair should hold the 0. The key levels to watch are support around 0. A break of either level will likely see the move extend. Post election, the New Zealand dollar has been relatively subdued after the election produced a clear winner but no clear government.

It has been a week of poll driven whippy trading for the New Zealand dollar. It should stay around the 0. A National win will likely see a small relief rally, while a Labour victory may well spark a sharp correction lower, at least temporarily.

The New Zealand dollar has had a whippy week with a 0. The downside is still favoured given stronger US data. It should hold at current levels until next week with bias to downside of range. The interbank range this week has been: After spiking to 0. After a tough start to the week the New Zealand dollar is now up at 0. The break above minor resistance around 0. The New Zealand dollar dropped below major support at 0. It has bounced back to 0. The New Zealand dollar has climbed back over 0.

With little domestic data this week, NZD moves will be driven by offshore. It fell below support at 0. It should hold above 0. The New Zealand dollar has broken support at 0. The RBNZ next week should continue with a dovish tone so we see a test of the 0. If we get a solid US GDP figure tonight, that may well be enough to suggest a medium term high was been put in place yesterday at 0. We look for consolidation around current level ahead of that GDP data.

After failing to make significant gains against a broadly weakening USD in the first half of last week, the New Zealand dollar NZD eventually came to the party and jumped to a 10 month high on Friday at 0. It may well be trying to build a base for another crack higher toward the high at 0.

A large part of New Zealand dollars recent rally has been on the back of a broadly weakening United States dollar. This latest jump higher in the NZD has now bought the August high of 0.

Expect significant resistance as we approach that level however, and those looking to purchase United States Dollars should take advantage of this period of strength.

After failing to make significant gains against a broadly weakening USD in the first half of last week, the New Zealand dollar eventually came to the party and jumped to 10 month highs on Friday at 0.

Since then the pair has been consolidating those gains trading back for fourth around the 0. The New Zealand dollar has been trapped in an increasingly tight range against the United States dollar over the past few weeks.

Support comes in around 0. In the meantime, those looking to purchase USD should take advantage of the current level, or any potential further strength we may see. The New Zealand dollar continues to struggle to hold levels above 0. The New Zealand dollar seems to find the air over 0. It looks like 0. The New Zealand dollar has struggled this week and in spite of the solid fundamentals continuing it looks a little out of breath above the 0.

Look for rallies to continue to run into willing sellers. Get a quote Apply for an account. Apply for obligation free account and currency commentary.

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